Colorado is heading into one of its most concerning water years in decades, as a combination of record warmth and historically low snowpack threatens supplies across the state and beyond.

For Colorado’s state climatologist, checking mountain snow levels is a daily ritual—and for good reason. The snow that accumulates in the Rockies each winter acts as a natural reservoir, slowly melting to supply water to millions of people across multiple states, Tribal nations, and even parts of Mexico. It also underpins key parts of the state’s economy, from agriculture to recreation.

This year, that system is under strain.

As of late March, Colorado’s statewide snowpack sat at just 38% of the historical average, based on data from more than 100 monitoring stations. That marks the lowest level in more than 40 years—and possibly the lowest ever recorded. In many mountain regions that typically see hundreds of inches of snowfall, totals this season have struggled to reach even half of normal levels.

What makes this year especially unusual isn’t just the lack of snow, but the heat.

The first five months of the water year—from October through February—were the warmest on record in Colorado by a wide margin. March didn’t offer relief. Instead, an intense and persistent heat wave accelerated the melting of what little snow had accumulated. In Fort Collins, temperatures broke records repeatedly, including an unprecedented 91-degree day in March—something that had never been recorded so early in the year.

That combination of low snowfall and extreme warmth is already reshaping expectations for the months ahead.

Drought conditions are likely to intensify, with ripple effects across multiple sectors. Farmers and ranchers could face reduced water availability, leading to lower crop yields and higher costs. The outdoor recreation industry, particularly skiing and snow-dependent tourism, has already taken a hit. And with dry conditions setting in earlier than usual, the risk of severe wildfires increases.

The impacts won’t be confined to the mountains. Because Colorado’s rivers originate in high-elevation snowpack, shortages can travel hundreds of miles downstream. Even areas that received near-average precipitation this winter could see reduced water flows if upstream snowpack remains low.

Underlying all of this is a longer-term trend. Colorado has warmed by about 3 degrees Fahrenheit since the late 19th century, and most of the state’s warmest years on record have occurred in the past decade. While droughts have always been part of the region’s climate, rising temperatures are making them more frequent and more severe—a shift that climatologists often sum up with a simple phrase: climate change is water change.

Normally, late winter and early spring storms offer a chance to recover from a slow start to the snow season. This year, that window is closing quickly. Instead of replenishing the snowpack, March brought record heat that is rapidly erasing it.

Unless weather patterns shift significantly in the coming weeks, Colorado could be heading into uncharted territory for water supply—raising difficult questions about how the state will manage an increasingly scarce resource in the years ahead.