On October 8, 2018, Egg Geo's eloquent leader, Jay Egg, emphasized the need for geothermal energy in America and explained what the future of geothermal drilling might look like years into the future in an article for The Driller. The original article, "Geothermal: An Understated Idea Whose Time Has Come," provided an insightful look at the geothermal industry, highlighting its potential and the importance of educational sharing. 

Now, six years later, we revisit this piece to reflect on how the geothermal world has evolved, assess the accuracy of Egg's predictions, and explore the industry's future even further as we slowly approach 2030 and yet another six years later.

2018 Geothermal Reflections Become 2024 Realities

While there were many elements highlighted within the past article, a few specific elements stood out as they not only became realities in the last few years but have even seen results far surpassing the wildest dreams of the 2018 proponents of geothermal drilling and geothermal energy in America.

Knowledge and Education

In his 2018 article, Jay Egg emphasized the lack of educational sharing as a significant barrier to geothermal adoption. This remains a crucial issue today, but strides have been made. Organizations like the International Ground Source Heat Pump Association (IGSHPA) and state initiatives have pushed for more comprehensive education and training programs. New York and Ontario have been leaders in this respect, promoting geothermal technology through fully vetted curricula.

System Awareness and Adoption

Egg pointed out the surprise many felt when learning about the existing number of geothermal systems. Today, this surprise persists but with increasing awareness. States like New York have implemented mandates to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050, driving the shift from combustion heating to heat pumps. This has spurred a more aggressive adoption of geothermal systems, albeit slower than anticipated.

Technological Integration

The original article noted a disconnect between building systems and ground-coupled portions. Advances in technology and better integration methods have bridged some of these gaps. However, this integration remains a work in progress, requiring ongoing collaboration between geologists, engineers, and HVAC professionals.

Predictions Realized and Ongoing Challenges

With the right statistics, an understanding of the market and economic climate, and a finger on the proverbial pulse of the geothermal industry, Jay Egg was able not only to predict several elements of the 2024 geothermal energy field but also the challenges that geothermal adopters are still facing today. 

Predictions Actualized

1. Increased Adoption: Jay Egg predicted a rise in geothermal system specifications by professionals post-education. This prediction holds true as more professionals are now specifying geothermal systems in their projects, driven by increased understanding and incentives.

2. Environmental Impact: The environmental benefits of geothermal systems, such as eliminating combustion emissions and reducing water consumption, have been validated. These systems have proven effective in contributing to sustainability goals, as seen in successful implementations in cities like Stockholm and Hamilton.

3. Economic Viability: Egg's analogy of not needing to be an expert to use geothermal systems is increasingly relevant. As more professionals adopt geothermal technology, the economic viability of these systems has become clearer, with long-term cost savings outweighing initial investments.

Ongoing Challenges

1. Market Penetration: Despite the benefits, geothermal adoption is still lower than expected. As David Hatherton commented on a recent post resharing the original article, the residential installation level remains in the mid-20,000s, far below the predicted 400,000 units per year. This discrepancy highlights a continued need for market education and better incentive structures.

2. Policy and Incentives: While federal and state tax credits have been in place, the growth has not met expectations. The industry needs more robust policies and incentives to drive widespread adoption. The challenges cited by Hatherton reflect a gap between policy intent and market execution.

3. Technological Advancements: Continuous improvement in geothermal technology and integration methods is essential. The industry must focus on developing more efficient systems and addressing the complexities of installation and maintenance to make geothermal a mainstream choice.

The Future: 2024 to 2030

In the same way that industry leader Jay Egg once predicted the future of the market in 2018, it's time we look to the future once more and what 2030 may hold for geothermal drillers, the average American household, and climate advocates alike. 

Increased Collaboration: As we move towards 2030, increased collaboration between government bodies, educational institutions, and industry players will be crucial. This collaboration will drive the development of more effective educational programs, improved policies, and innovative technologies.

Enhanced Incentives: To meet the ambitious goals of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and increasing geothermal adoption, enhanced and streamlined incentives will be necessary. These incentives should target not only residential installations but also commercial and industrial applications.

Technological Innovation: Advancements in drilling technology, system integration, and energy storage will play a significant role in the future of geothermal energy. Innovations that reduce installation costs and improve system efficiency will make geothermal a more attractive option for a wider audience.

Market Expansion: The geothermal market is expected to expand significantly by 2030. Increased awareness, combined with the drive for sustainability, will push more industries to adopt geothermal solutions. This expansion will create new opportunities for drillers and other professionals in the field.

Sustainability Goals: By 2030, geothermal energy is likely to be a key player in achieving global sustainability goals. As more regions recognize the long-term benefits of geothermal systems, we can expect to see a significant reduction in reliance on traditional heating and cooling methods, contributing to a greener, more sustainable future.

To add to his past article with a look into the present and future of the sector, Jay Egg stated:

We have indeed surpassed many of the predictions from 2018. With the passage of the Utility Thermal Energy Networks and JOBS Act (UTENJ) in New York, and the great work of HEET in Massachusetts, the geothermal industry has gained remarkable traction.

The International Association of Plumbing And Mechanical Officials (IAPMO) is presently working on the Thermal Energy Network (TEN) code in addition to the 2027 Uniform Mechanical Code (UMC). The United Association of Journeymen and Apprentices of the Plumbing and Pipefitting Industry of the United States and Canada (UA) has commissioned a Thermal Energy Networks training manual for their nearly 400,000 members in North America. They have also commissioned the design and completion of TENs training trailers.

The federal Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and ITC have afforded up to 50% federal incentives for Geothermal HVAC systems and TENs infrastructure. The allotment for these programs is uncapped and is estimated at a value that exceeds a trillion dollars. Movement of thermal energy for geothermal systems throughout our cities has become the last great frontier of energy distribution. About 50% of the energy consumed by our built environment can be satisfied with thermal energy instead of electricity in our built environment. Thermal energy resources and electrically driven components of these geothermal systems work together to reduce the electric demand on our grid to the lowest level attainable.

Energy companies worldwide are recognizing the need to distribute this thermal energy throughout our cities and towns to provide relief from energy poverty, and to reduce peak demand on the electric grid.

During the 1950s and 1960s, natural gas networks were piped throughout our cities and towns. We're embarking on a similar task with TENs. Thermal Energy Network infrastructure is similar in scope and size to modern water supply infrastructure. TENs contain water as a working fluid that carries thermal energy from building to building in our built environment. These networks will be anchored with millions of geothermal boreholes and other heat sources and sinks. This is

the final frontier in renewable energy. It is estimated that this will keep our trades and professions busy for the next 30 years or more.

Whatever part of this energy revolution you choose to become involved with, the work is there for anyone who is ready to participate and become part of the solution.

We stand on the shoulders of giants that have built the foundation of this great industry over the last half century. The next generation is taking the charge presently and they're doing a remarkable job of picking up where many of the Pioneers have left off. As the pioneers of geothermal industry are retiring, they are doing so with the confidence that this industry is in good hands.

Conclusion: Geothermal's Time has Truly Come—and It's Here to Stay!

At the end of the day, geothermal energy is an ever-expanding industry that needs drillers, advocates, communities, and government leaders alike to jump on board for continued growth. Jay Egg's 2018 article, "Geothermal: An Understated Idea Whose Time Has Come," laid the foundation for understanding the potential of geothermal energy, but six years later, we see that while progress has been made, challenges remain. 

By continuing to focus on education, policy enhancement, technological innovation, and market expansion, the geothermal industry can achieve significant growth by 2030, making it an integral part of our sustainable future.

As our Industry Editor and geothermal leader Brock Yordy aptly put it, Jay Egg's vision for geothermal energy remains relevant. It's time to dissect and build on these ideas to propel the industry forward. Let's continue to innovate, educate, and collaborate to make geothermal energy a cornerstone of our green energy landscape.

About Jay and Egg Geo

Egg Geo was founded in 1990 as an engineering and contracting entity in central Florida where their headquarters remain to this day. Jay serves on several committees for the International Association of Plumbing And Mechanical Officials (IAPMO)s, and is an elected director for Geothermal Rising, the oldest and largest geothermal organization in the world. Egg Geo, LLC has bridged the gap between hot geothermal and low temperature geothermal HVAC systems over the last 6 years. Egg Geo is focused on bringing various facets of the geothermal industry into harmony. Egg Geo’s engineers and scientists are in strategic locations throughout the world. They provide legislative, educational, scientific, and engineering capabilities to projects throughout the world.