Goldman Sachs Ups Copper Price Forecast on Strong China Demand, Supply Risks

Copper prices could be heading higher this year, according to Goldman Sachs. The bank just raised its short-term forecast, pointing to stronger-than-expected demand from China and tighter global supplies, particularly outside the U.S.

In a new note to clients, Goldman bumped its Q2 and Q3 2025 copper price forecast up to $9,330 to $9,150 per metric tonne, from a previous range of $8,620 to $8,370. A key factor? The U.S. is importing more copper, and that’s expected to drain inventories in other parts of the world. As those stockpiles shrink, prices are likely to stay elevated.

Goldman also expects tighter spreads on the London Metal Exchange (LME), which could discourage speculative bets against copper and help keep the market steady—or even bullish.

What This Means for the Average Driller

If you're working in copper drilling or exploration, this is good news. Higher prices can mean better margins, more interest from investors, and potentially more work in the field. With global supplies tightening and trade routes shifting, there may also be more opportunities for U.S.-based producers to step in and meet demand—especially if tariffs complicate international supply chains.

China’s Still Buying—for Now

Despite a shaky global economy and ongoing trade friction, China’s demand for copper has held up so far in 2025, largely thanks to its strong export sector. But that might not last forever. Goldman expects demand from China to slow later this year as new tariffs begin to take effect.

A big unknown in all of this is the U.S. government’s upcoming decision on copper import tariffs. If they’re implemented soon, it could cool domestic demand. But if the decision drags out, it might disrupt global supply flows and make it harder to get copper into key markets like China. Either way, the uncertainty could keep prices from dropping anytime soon.

Longer term, Goldman sees a copper supply deficit forming by 2026. Demand from sectors like electric vehicles, solar, and energy infrastructure is expected to rise steadily, while new mining projects struggle to keep pace.

• The bank expects copper prices to dip slightly—possibly hitting $9,000 per tonne in October 2025—before climbing above $10,500 per tonne by the end of 2026.

That’s a strong signal for drillers and producers to keep pushing forward. With copper playing a major role in the global shift toward cleaner energy, the outlook is increasingly in favor of those who can help get it out of the ground.